How to estimate your edge in blackjack

It is common knowledge amongst experienced card counters just how you estimate your edge in the game. With most rules variations then the house normally starts with an edge of around 0.5% in multi-deck games like four deck and six deck. With level one counting systems like the High-Low for example then this is what is known as a balanced count. This basically means that when you have counted down the entire deck or decks then the count will start and end at zero because there are the same number of high value cards to low value cards.

There are two counts that work side by side in this system and they are the running count and the true count. The running count keeps track of the number of high cards seen to low cards and gives you the information of how many of each have been dealt. But the running count by itself is not a very accurate representation of edge because of the fact that the casino starts with an advantage.

With the high-low counting system then you use a second count which is the “true count”. The way to arrive at the true count is to simply divide the running count total by the number of decks left to be dealt. So if the count is +6 and there are three decks left to be dealt then six divided by three is two and so the true count is +2. Now as stated the casino starts with a roughly +0.5% edge in multiple deck blackjack but this edge shifts by 0.5% for each one point movement in the true count.

So this means that the true count needs to reach +1 for the player to be playing even with the house. It also reveals that with one deck to go (providing the dealer goes that far) and a running count of +3 that the player still does not have an edge. So now you can see how unreliable the running count is for estimating your edge. So with a true count of +2 then the player has an edge of roughly 0.5%. This is a major reason why many players bust out in card counting because they often play over their bankroll because they never really comprehend just how narrow their edge really is against the house.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson plays poker at www.pokerstars.co.uk